CONTENT - WINTER 2006

A Look at Possible Republican Presidential 2008 Candidates

by Randy Simbro

No Young Republican remembers the kind of presidential election that we will see in 2008. This will be the first since 1952 where neither candidate will be a sitting President or Vice President. In that respect, here we provide the 411 on the likely potential Republican candidates, a full year prior to the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire and Nevada primaries.

We recognize that candidates win elections, not party platforms, so in that light we’ll be touching on the core characteristics of each potential candidate, as well as grading them in 3 areas critical to a race: Electability, or how likely the candidate would be to be attractive enough to enough voters to win; Conservatism, measuring the candidates commitment to core Republican values; and an admittedly made-up quality called Presidentiality, a frail attempt to envision this candidate as the leader of the free world and moral leader of America. We’ve graded on a scale of 5 stars being excellent, 1 star being poor. Let the race begin…

Rudy Giuliani of New York

The former mayor of New York City tops our list in terms of name recognition. America’s mayor is popular among Independents and Democrats, making him very electable, and he can raise funds as well as anyone else on this list. But can a candidate who is pro-choice, pro gay marriage, and who has had three wives pass the Republican primaries which draw the most conservative of voters to the polls? That remains to be seen, but he’s not getting my vote. In addition, Giuliani has never held office higher than mayor, making him an unlikely candidate in an age where 4 of our last 5 Presidents held the office of Governor before ascending to the oval office.
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


John McCain of Arizona

Another non-conservative with the Republican tag next to his name, the senior Senator from Arizona also scores well on name recognition and fund raising, but strikingly weak on conservative issues. The American Conservative union marks him with a poor 82 lifetime score. His liberal approach to immigration, his partnership with ultra liberals like Ted Kennedy on recent legislation, and his public condemnation of the Bush administration has made McCain unpopular among conservatives and counter his strong views concerning the War on Terror. Combine this with the fact that McCain will be 72 on Election Day 2008, which would make him the oldest President ever elected to his first term.
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


Mitt Romney of Massachusetts

What if I told you about a conservative candidate who took the helm of a very blue state with a $3 Billion deficit and turned it into a $700 Million surplus in 4 years? Would you vote for him? What if he was pro life, against gay marriage, tough on illegal immigration, and fiscally and socially conservative? Sounds interesting, huh? Now what if I told you he was a Mormon. Not in my recollection has the faith of a candidate been the lightning rod that Romney’s Mormonism will be if indeed he runs (and he’s thus far given no indication that he won’t). Will Americans vote for a man with a faith they know little about? Massachusetts did, which will certainly help. Will other blue states follow? Will the Christian right vote for someone whom they consider to be in a cult, even if he shares the same social values? As I was reminded recently, Jimmy Carter was a southern Baptist, and look how bad he screwed America up.
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


Newt Gingrich of Virginia

This one is sorta just for fun. Newt is a strong leader, very conservative, and a terrific communicator. I believe that Newt’s abilities are extraordinary and that he would make an excellent President. Unfortunately this just isn’t going to happen. He recently joined Giuliani in the three wives club, and that alone may be enough for conservatives to support another candidate. But couple that with the intense loathing he receives from both sides of the aisle, and we can see that Newt’s hat is in the ring for really one reason: influence. His name alone garners great attention, and his words will be greatly influential to other candidates, allowing the former Speaker of the House to influence what and how issues are addressed in this race. Immigration, the War on Terror, and fiscal conservatism are critical issues to Newt, and surely as long as he can hang around and keep enough dough in the war chest, his issues will be the issues.
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


Condoleezza Rice of Alabama

I admit it, I had to look up how to spell her first name. But a unique name is never a bad thing in politics, though alone is insufficient. We know Condi is tough, a good communicator, and has high approval ratings for her jobs as National Security Advisor and Secretary of State. We know that no one on this list is more qualified, but America probably isn’t ready to vote for a woman for President yet. Even if she were popular enough to consider for Chief Executive, you don’t get to the White House the first time you ever run for public office, making Condi’s run even less likely. Could the Vice Presidency loom in her future? Rice would be an excellent choice on the ticket, attractive to women and minorities, both demographics this party will need on D-day. So who says we’re just the party of stodgy old white men?
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


George Allen of Virginia

Can you lose your Senate seat in your home state and still be a strong candidate for the Presidency? Good question. Allen has strong conservative values, roots in the South and the West, and is still raising money. He may still be considering his 2008 options. Don’t count him out yet, as I’m sure the schizophrenic voters of Virginia haven’t forgotten him, their former Senator and Governor.
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


Duncan Hunter of California

Congressmen don’t typically ascend to the Presidency without a stop in their Governor’s Mansion or the Senate, unless of course you are watching The West Wing. With his early filing and announcement of his candidacy, Hunter is likely aiming at name recognition and a future run at the U.S. Senate or Governor of California. We wish you well Duncan, especially if you defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010!
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


Michael Bloomberg of New York

Another liberal mayor of New York City, Bloomberg is considered a dark horse candidate, possibly even running as an Independent. Though a third party victory would be unlikely, never count out an ambitious billionaire with his own cable channel, I’ve always said.
Electability
Conservatism
Presidentiality

 


So who will emerge as the early frontrunners? Giuliani and McCain already claim that mantle, though they are unlikely to get great support from conservatives. How about a ticket with a Mormon and an African-American woman? It’s possible. But this far away from the primaries, its still anybody’s guess, and the final candidates are rarely clear this far in advance, leaving the door wide open for many others. Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Governor Sonny Perdue of Georgia or Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky are all possibilities. Whoever we choose, let’s work so that our candidate and our ideas sit better with the American people and we win four more years in the White House.
 

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