No Young Republican remembers the kind
of presidential election that we will see in 2008. This
will be the first since 1952 where neither candidate will
be a sitting President or Vice President. In that respect,
here we provide the 411 on the likely potential Republican
candidates, a full year prior to the Iowa Caucuses and the
New Hampshire and Nevada primaries.
We recognize that candidates win elections,
not party platforms, so in that light we’ll be touching
on the core characteristics of each potential candidate,
as well as grading them in 3 areas critical to a race: Electability,
or how likely the candidate would be to be attractive enough
to enough voters to win; Conservatism, measuring the candidates
commitment to core Republican values; and an admittedly
made-up quality called Presidentiality, a frail attempt
to envision this candidate as the leader of the free world
and moral leader of America. We’ve graded on a scale
of 5 stars being excellent, 1 star being poor. Let the race
begin…
| Rudy
Giuliani of New York |
| 
|
The former mayor
of New York City tops our list in terms of name
recognition. America’s mayor is popular
among Independents and Democrats, making him very
electable, and he can raise funds as well as anyone
else on this list. But can a candidate who is
pro-choice, pro gay marriage, and who has had
three wives pass the Republican primaries which
draw the most conservative of voters to the polls?
That remains to be seen, but he’s not getting
my vote. In addition, Giuliani has never held
office higher than mayor, making him an unlikely
candidate in an age where 4 of our last 5 Presidents
held the office of Governor before ascending to
the oval office. |
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
|
| John
McCain of Arizona |
| 
|
Another non-conservative
with the Republican tag next to his name, the senior
Senator from Arizona also scores well on name recognition
and fund raising, but strikingly weak on conservative
issues. The American Conservative union marks him with
a poor 82 lifetime score. His liberal approach to immigration,
his partnership with ultra liberals like Ted Kennedy
on recent legislation, and his public condemnation of
the Bush administration has made McCain unpopular among
conservatives and counter his strong views concerning
the War on Terror. Combine this with the fact that McCain
will be 72 on Election Day 2008, which would make him
the oldest President ever elected to his first term.
|
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
| Mitt
Romney of Massachusetts |
| 
|
What if I told you
about a conservative candidate who took the helm
of a very blue state with a $3 Billion deficit
and turned it into a $700 Million surplus in 4
years? Would you vote for him? What if he was
pro life, against gay marriage, tough on illegal
immigration, and fiscally and socially conservative?
Sounds interesting, huh? Now what if I told you
he was a Mormon. Not in my recollection has the
faith of a candidate been the lightning rod that
Romney’s Mormonism will be if indeed he
runs (and he’s thus far given no indication
that he won’t). Will Americans vote for
a man with a faith they know little about? Massachusetts
did, which will certainly help. Will other blue
states follow? Will the Christian right vote for
someone whom they consider to be in a cult, even
if he shares the same social values? As I was
reminded recently, Jimmy Carter was a southern
Baptist, and look how bad he screwed America up.
|
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
|
| Newt
Gingrich of Virginia |
| 
|
This one is sorta just
for fun. Newt is a strong leader, very conservative,
and a terrific communicator. I believe that Newt’s
abilities are extraordinary and that he would make an
excellent President. Unfortunately this just isn’t
going to happen. He recently joined Giuliani in the
three wives club, and that alone may be enough for conservatives
to support another candidate. But couple that with the
intense loathing he receives from both sides of the
aisle, and we can see that Newt’s hat is in the
ring for really one reason: influence. His name alone
garners great attention, and his words will be greatly
influential to other candidates, allowing the former
Speaker of the House to influence what and how issues
are addressed in this race. Immigration, the War on
Terror, and fiscal conservatism are critical issues
to Newt, and surely as long as he can hang around and
keep enough dough in the war chest, his issues will
be the issues. |
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
| Condoleezza
Rice of Alabama |
| 
|
I admit it, I had
to look up how to spell her first name. But a
unique name is never a bad thing in politics,
though alone is insufficient. We know Condi is
tough, a good communicator, and has high approval
ratings for her jobs as National Security Advisor
and Secretary of State. We know that no one on
this list is more qualified, but America probably
isn’t ready to vote for a woman for President
yet. Even if she were popular enough to consider
for Chief Executive, you don’t get to the
White House the first time you ever run for public
office, making Condi’s run even less likely.
Could the Vice Presidency loom in her future?
Rice would be an excellent choice on the ticket,
attractive to women and minorities, both demographics
this party will need on D-day. So who says we’re
just the party of stodgy old white men? |
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
|
| George
Allen of Virginia |
| 
|
Can you lose your Senate
seat in your home state and still be a strong candidate
for the Presidency? Good question. Allen has strong
conservative values, roots in the South and the West,
and is still raising money. He may still be considering
his 2008 options. Don’t count him out yet, as
I’m sure the schizophrenic voters of Virginia
haven’t forgotten him, their former Senator and
Governor. |
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
| Duncan
Hunter of California |
| 
|
Congressmen don’t
typically ascend to the Presidency without a stop
in their Governor’s Mansion or the Senate,
unless of course you are watching The West Wing.
With his early filing and announcement of his
candidacy, Hunter is likely aiming at name recognition
and a future run at the U.S. Senate or Governor
of California. We wish you well Duncan, especially
if you defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010! |
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
|
| Michael
Bloomberg of New York |
| 
|
Another liberal mayor
of New York City, Bloomberg is considered a dark horse
candidate, possibly even running as an Independent.
Though a third party victory would be unlikely, never
count out an ambitious billionaire with his own cable
channel, I’ve always said. |
|
Electability
|
Conservatism
|
Presidentiality
|
|
So who will emerge as the early frontrunners?
Giuliani and McCain already claim that mantle, though they
are unlikely to get great support from conservatives. How
about a ticket with a Mormon and an African-American woman?
It’s possible. But this far away from the primaries,
its still anybody’s guess, and the final candidates
are rarely clear this far in advance, leaving the door wide
open for many others. Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Governor
Sonny Perdue of Georgia or Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell
of Kentucky are all possibilities. Whoever we choose, let’s
work so that our candidate and our ideas sit better with the
American people and we win four more years in the White House.
|
|